Search Engines - Is Google’s domination about to end?
Market Greed, Opinions, Predictions, TechnologyAugust 18th, 2006Google is the king of search engines but its kingdom under attack. The invaders are Microsoft’s Windows Live, Yahoo and the newly renamed kid on the block Ask.com.
Google’s advantage: At one time most search engines used to display a list of pages containing the search words without ordering the results by importance. The results were like searching for a needle in a bale of hay instead of a haystack, better but still a pain in rear. Then along came Google and its page rankings, the hay was gone. It has taken years for Yahoo, MSN and Ask.com to realise the importance of ordering results by importance and developing the infrastructure and algorithms to provide results comparable to Google.
Search by definition is imprecise since the search engine has no clue what you’re really thinking about. If you type in Apple are you searching for the Fruit or the Company? The search engine has no idea, neither do the advertisers. The only person that knows is you. Google still returns better results but the difference is negligible.
Yahoo: Losing to Google
Lets get this one out of the way. Yahoo is getting its ass handed to it on a plate by Google. Its losing to Google in every aspect from search, functionality, user experience and on the financial side too.
Microsoft: The threat from Vista
The Microsoft threat is not from its search engine but from Internet Explorer 7. Here is a quote from the Internet Explorer features page
“Internet Explorer 7 brings your favorite web search providers to you. With the built-in search box, you can search the web at any time without having to open a search provider page. You can display search results in a separate tab, and then open the results in other tabs to quickly compare sites and find the information you want. You can even customize your search by setting your favorite search provider as the default.“
As most of you have probably guessed the “default search provider” is Windows Live. What a surprise. So every installation of Vista is potentially a lost user for other search engines. Most users wont bother to change search engines if the default one gives results that are good enough. Search engines can negotiate deals with PC manufacturers to get their search engine set at the default. This will cost money since HP, Dell, Sony wont be providing the service for free. Any future re-installs on these computers from a retail copy of Vista will reset the default back to Windows Live.
Easy to access was another minor advantage that Google had. Type in Google and hit Ctrl+Enter to go to the Google site was easier than “search.msn.com”. Now you just need to type in “live” and hit Ctrl+Enter to get to the Microsoft engine.
Ask.com: A better user experience
Search engines are no longer about getting users a relevant result. All search engines do that. Engines need to differentiate themselves by providing unique features and assisting their users manage the results. Ask.com has done a phenomenal job of differentiating itself. Personally I love the binoculars which give a quick view of the site in a pop-up. I also like the “Narrow your Search”, “Expand your Search” and “Related Names” sidebars. Ask.com also has a nice feature (probably from when it was called AskJeeves.com” where you can ask a question and it will try to answer the question along with providing search results. For all of these reasons Ask.com is the fastest growing search
Conclusion: Google is a good company with good earnings and growth but its dominance is under threat from Microsoft and Ask.com. I prefer IACI for its Ask.com search engine which has a better user experience and is growing faster than Google. While Google is a one trick pony IACI has a diversified economic float and a brilliant CEO in Barry Diller.
Conflicts : I own shares of Microsoft and IAC/Interactive Corp
August 25th, 2006 at 6:40 am
what about the last 2earnings. Microsoft and IACI not even close. Google has the brand value still. You are missing it and all of the other applications that will be accreative. The deals with MTV (CBS) and FOX are just beginning to materialize. Brilliant Rev share deals Not to mention, cell phone applications which will serve to distance Google from your so called investments. Numbers do not lie. Google has had two discounted earnings reports. When it comes to search the first thing that you think of is Google…that is it plain and simple. Google has another sky rocket year in its foundation.
August 25th, 2006 at 10:41 pm
My issue with google is I see a very competitive future. The main problem is IE7’s inbuild search and Ask.coms better user experience will decrease Google’s market share. Ask doesnt really have to show a big profit, it just has to steal market share from other search engines till Barry Diller decides to spin it off.
When people think search they think Google and when people think DVR they think Tivo. I think what happened to Tivo could happen to Google. They both came with brilliant lifechanging services, their names became verbs and their market share was gobbled up by creative competitors.
Google’s new applications Gbuy, Google Video etc have existing players in the market that have excellent products and brandname recognition. Breaking in will cost google money and there is no gaurantee of success. The deals Google has for providing search on sites like MySpace are not that great for the company. The winners are the content companies. Since most search providers give good results, whichever search provider gives content owners the most money is the one they will go with. This will cut the search providers margins razor thin.
October 23rd, 2006 at 6:16 am
If ask.com quits with the popups I’ll consider using them.
November 1st, 2006 at 6:38 am
Barry Diller - is that you?
December 3rd, 2006 at 3:21 am
I think to say that Google was the first person to think of sorting search results “in order of relevance” is a little inaccurate. They were all trying to do this– and half-assing it. They mixed regular search results with ads, which was incredibly annoying since the ads were usually far less relevant (as supposed to Google methodology). The reason Google is going to fall, I beleive, is that it is overpriced and cannot possibly meet the expectations that have been placed on it. It’s a great company, and I was using them way before it was popular, but they’re going to drop probably 300% down to perhaps 150$ per share– like Microsoft’s fall after the dot-com boom.